In its fight against an economic slowdown, China has opened the bank vaults again and pumped more credit into its financial systems, again, says political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation to the New York Times. It is an old solution in a country where debts are already at dangerous levels, he says.Read More →
Yujiapu, Tianjin’s financial district, is building China’s Manhattan, with loans since most inhabitants still have to arrive. That goes well, says financial analyst Victor Shih, as long as the project has the political goodwill in Beijing to subscribe giants loans, he tells in the New York Times.Read More →
China brought the newly adopted foreign investment law with some fanfare, but political analyst Victor Shih does not expect the law will be a game changer, as some hope, he tells at the Deutsche Welle. A level playing field for foreign and domestic companies in China might be far away.Read More →
China’s financial institutions ponder on the pros and cons of a currency devaluation as the effects of the trade war with the US start to kick in. While devaluation is on the agenda, it would be a tricky road, says financial analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, at CapitalWatch.Read More →
Tariffs in the ongoing trade war are taxes, so it is unavoidable consumer prices will go up, says financial analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, at The Point. Some increases might be taken by the distributors, and consumers are not yet worried because the US economy is now doing very well, Shih says. But that could change in the months to come when the effects of the trade war kick in.Read More →
Devaluating the Chinese Yuan can be an attractive, but also dangerous way for China to deal with the effect of the ongoing trade war, says financial and political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation to Reuters. ” It is likely that corruption is returning, which will undermine Chinese capital control measures.”Read More →
Following the investigation into Russia meddling into US elections, California Congressman Jeff Denham has also accused China of the same. While there have been some minor spying incidents, political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, does not see a similar effort for interference from China, he tells Politifact.Read More →
China’s central bank PBOC is dressing up its figures. Financial analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, has for Bloomberg a look at the methods the bank is using. Bloomberg: Including asset-backed securities in its measure is a way for the central bankRead More →
The developing trade war between China and the US focuses on tariffs for commodities, while China could hurt the US really nasty by deploying its consumer power by boycotting products, tourism and US-related education. Political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, explains in Bloomberg why China has not done so.Read More →
China has been reluctantly been shooting back with tariffs at US imports up to now in the Donald Trump trade war. It might be even more reluctant to use the powerful tool of its consumers in the trade war, says political analyst Victor Shih in the Financial Post. But it could, and Apple and Starbucks should prepare, says business analyst Shaun Rein on Fox News.Read More →
Rumors say China is willing to offer a reduction of its annual trade deficit with the US by US$200 billion. Even if China would be willing to do so, it would almost be “difficult to contemplate.”, says political analyst Victor Shih to Bloomberg.Read More →
We have seen this before, says financial analyst Victor Shih about the efforts by the financial authorities in China to reduce debts. In 2014 they tried the same, and in 2015, 2016 the PBOC, China’s central bank, started to print money again. When economic growth comes under a certain level, that will happen again, he tells Bloomberg.Read More →