While the bears are out in full force again on China and the global economy, economic analyst Arthur Kroeber is not expecting an economic crash in China anytime soon, he tells The Guardian.
Some see Wenzhou as the canary in the coal mine; others, as an anomaly. Arthur Kroeber of Gavekal-Dragonomics said there were serious problems in the Chinese economy, but “nothing to make me think it’s going to come crashing to a halt any time soon”. The stack of bad debts can still be worked through, he believes. While the barely occupied “ghost cities” reveal high end property bubbles in several places, there is an overall housing shortage. And a shock from Europe is unlikely to be as severe as 2008, he argued.
Growth slowed to 9.1% in the third quarter of this year and Standard Chartered has just projected a rate of 8.5% for 2012-13. But if it slowed to 7% “that wouldn’t be a disaster,” Kroeber added, particularly given that the number of people joining the workforce is falling.
Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.
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